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Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-03-15T06:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/121/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Dst min. in nT: -132
Dst min. time: 2013-03-17T21:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T00:00Z
Prediction Method: H3DMHD (HAFv.3 + 3DMHD)
Prediction Method Note: 
(Arrival Prediction by Chin-Chun Wu submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)

On Mar 15, 2013, at 8:39 PM, Chin-Chun Wu  wrote:


H3DMHD predict CME (March 15, 2013, 06:54: COR2A/B) driven shock will arrive at Earth at 00UT on March 17, 2013.

Estimated speed of CME from COR2 of STEREO-A/B is ~1000 km/s.
Source region of this CME located at N09W02. 

Links to the movies of the simulation results:

http://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif
http://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif
http://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif
http://solphys.nrl.navy.mil/users/wu/CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif


Have a nice weekend!


Chin-Chun Wu
Lead Time: 28.82 hour(s)
Difference: 5.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-03-16T00:39Z
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